Thursday, September 13, 2012

What is Probability of Passing ECE Board Exam with Self Review Only?

Getting additional 20% in ECE or Electronics Engineer Board Exam is Against all Odds

If 100 newly graduates will take a pre-board on ECE board exam, what do you think are their scores? Do you agree with me that most of them will get 50% on the average?

When I took the pre-board, the result is on the range of 50%. The reasons I see why 50% only are:

1. We are not familiar what is ECE or Electronics Engineer Board Exam is all about.
2. We are relying on store knowledge we learned on college days and forgetting have eaten our memory.
3. Skills in answering Multiple Choice Questions are not yet developed.

Probability of Passing ECE or Electronics Engineer Board Exam with Self Review

I have listed potential probability in passing ECE/Electronics Engineer Board Exam with and without self review.

1. Probability without Review: 50 - 65%
2. Probability with Self Review:  65 - 75%
3. Review in Review Center (regular) plus Self Review:  65 - 80%
4. Probability with Review in Review Center (regular), Refresher, Coaching  plus Self Review:  69 - 90%

This is only my point of view, we need lot of data, experiment and studies to determine if the probability bracket is true. The 50% probability of passing without review is based from my experience taking the pre-board without review.

The probability of passing ECE board exam with Self Review is 65 - 75% and it's a gamble. I recommend you to enroll in review center for a regular review then the rest of your time is devoted to self review. This will increase you chance in passing because review center provide tips and latest trends of board exam - at least.

Reasons why newly graduate students don't Review on Review Center

1. Financial problem -you need tuition fee on review center plus allowance for transportation and food.
2. Some newly graduates need to work immediately.
3. Assumption that self review is enough to pass the board exam.

Ok, I will not enroll in review center because I don't have money and time. Lets us assume that I am sure that I can get 25 correct answers on 50 Math multiple choice questions or 50 correct answers on 100 Electronics questions. In other words, I assume that I can get 50% on all ECE subjects with self review only.

70% is passing percentage of ECE or Electronics Engineer Board exam and how far I am to passing? That's 20% right?

I assume that you will get 50% on all subject and the only thing left are the probability that you will get 20% in order to pass. Now, the real question here are "What is the Probability of getting 20 correct answer in Electronics out of 50 multiple choice questions?" or "What is Probability of getting 10 correct answer in 25 Math multiple choice questions?

What is Binomial Probability Distribution?

We will use Binomial Probability Distribution to compute for Probability of getting 20 correct answers out of 50 Multiple Choice Questions (MCQ) in Electronics subject. Binomial probability distribution are applicable if,

1. There are fixed number of trials - 50 Questions
2. The trials are independent of each other - Each question are different and have 4 independent choices
3. The only outcomes of trials are Pass or Fail.

Probability of Getting a Score of 20 Correct Answers out of 50 ECE MCQ

Well, that's really a very small chance of getting 20 correct answers out of 50 multiple choice questions in Electronics.

How about the probability of getting 3 correct answer out of 3 multiple choice questions with 50% probability of success?

P(3) = 0.53(1-0.5)3-3
P(3) = 0.53(1-0.5)0
P(3) = 0.125 or 1/8

Honestly it's hard to pass the ECE board exam by guessing because we don’t review and chance of passing will increase if we only give time for self review.

Binomial Probability Distribution

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How to PASS ECE/Electronics Engineer Board Exam in 40 Days
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